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	<title>traderology.com</title>
	<link>http://traderology.com</link>
	<description>The Science of Being a Trader</description>
	<pubDate>Wed, 12 Mar 2008 15:27:34 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>Hello world!</title>
		<link>http://traderology.com/?p=1</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Mar 2008 15:27:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>TraderX</dc:creator>
		
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			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Welcome to WordPress. This is your first post. Edit or delete it, then start blogging!</p>
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		<title>Earnings Preview for Excel Maritime (EXM)</title>
		<link>http://traderology.com/?p=37</link>
		<comments>http://traderology.com/?p=37#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Aug 2007 02:45:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>TraderX</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Fundamental Research]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Stocks]]></category>

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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://traderology.com/?p=37</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Maritime stocks have been on the rise this year, and the run still has plenty of steam left. Ahead of their earnings tomorrow, keep an eye on Excel Maritime (NY:EXM).
Just last week Hornbeck Offshore (NY:HOS) raised its full year guidance on signs of stronger shipping demand. When Excel Maritime reports earnings tomorrow, the results should [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Maritime stocks have been on the rise this year, and the run still has plenty of steam left. Ahead of their earnings tomorrow, keep an eye on Excel Maritime (NY:EXM).</p>
<p>Just last week Hornbeck Offshore (NY:HOS) raised its full year guidance on signs of stronger shipping demand. When Excel Maritime reports earnings tomorrow, the results should be very similar. The Athens, Greece-based company owns a large fleet of vessels that primarily transport dry bulk commodities such as iron ore, coal, grains, as well as bauxite, fertilisers and steel products. The demand for these services has continued to rise over the past two years, and will grow even faster as energy prices become more favorable for this industry.</p>
<p>Although the chart signals a bearish trend, I believe this company is a great buy ahead of earnings. You will see that the company has formed a &#8220;bump and run&#8221; formation - the start of a bearish trend as the price approaches the run line. Tomorrow&#8217;s trading should indicate where this stock is headed after earnings. Keep an eye on this one.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.traderology.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2007/08/exm-8-12-2007.JPG" title="EXM Chart 8-12-2007"><img src="http://www.traderology.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2007/08/exm-8-12-2007.JPG" alt="EXM Chart 8-12-2007" /></a></p>
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		<title>Time to Buy the REITs</title>
		<link>http://traderology.com/?p=122</link>
		<comments>http://traderology.com/?p=122#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Jul 2007 00:03:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>TraderX</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Bargain Basket]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Fundamental Research]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Sector Watch]]></category>

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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://traderology.com/?p=122</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Real estate investment trusts have come under pressure lately as homebuilder and subprime stocks weigh on the real estate market. However, these companies have very few similarities, and thus have become cheap for absolutely no reason.
REITs are known for generating consistent revenue and dividends, almost as if the stock was a bond or loan. In [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Real estate investment trusts have come under pressure lately as homebuilder and subprime stocks weigh on the real estate market. However, these companies have very few similarities, and thus have become cheap for absolutely no reason.</p>
<p>REITs are known for generating consistent revenue and dividends, almost as if the stock was a bond or loan. In fact, stocks like Simon Property Group (NY:SPG) and Boston Properties (NY:BXP) have paid a dividend every quarter for the past decade. With most REITs getting hammered over the past few weeks, this represents a significant buying opportunity.  Here are my favorite real estate investment trusts.</p>
<p>ProLogis (NY:PLD) has been on my radar since it dipped below $60 a couple of weeks ago. This Denver-based REIT is the largest owner of industrial distribution properties, with approximately 450 million square feet of leasable space. Let&#8217;s face it, the world is not getting any bigger and these properties - including their rental rates - are only going to increase over time. My only worry is that the company has issued over $11 billion in debt to finance acquisitions, resulting in a total debt to market cap ratio of 39 percent. That&#8217;s a little high for my taste. I still recommend buying this stock below $59, and set my one month price target of $63 - a level just above where the stock began its downtrend.</p>
<p>The next company on my list raised guidance for the remainder of the fiscal year - and received an upgrade - just last week, and then proceeded to drop 20 points for, again, no apparent reason. SL Green Realty (NY:SLG) owns and operates some of the top commercial real estate properties in Manhattan, not to mention that many of their lease agreements recently expired. This means their rental rates can increase under the new rental agreements, ultimately equating to more income generated for shareholders. This is an absolute buy at this price. It fell hard and fast from $135, but it&#8217;s going to rip and rise right back to that level over the next few weeks. (Another one of my favorite REITs that operates in New York is Vornado Realty Trust (NY:VNO).)</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s not forget about those self-storage companies Sovran Storage (NY:SSS) and Public Storage (NY:PSA). These stocks are trading at 52-week lows and boast huge dividends. How can you not be in love with these things? Just like the aforementioned REITs, these companies are picking up cheap real estate during the weak real estate market, and their properties will only increase over time.</p>
<p>Although this next stock is not an REIT, it still operates in the real estate industry and has one of the most absurd short interest ratios in recent history. ZipRealty (NAS:ZIPR), a real estate brokerage firm with an online presence, has an average daily volume of 24,000 shares and 22.4 million shares outstanding. Of the total shares outstanding 1.8 million are currently shorted, and if you do the math, that means it would take over 300 days for the short sellers to cover their shares. On August 8th this company reports earnings and it could be an interesting trading session if their numbers beat the Street.</p>
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		<title>ATW Atwood Oceanics Trend</title>
		<link>http://traderology.com/?p=121</link>
		<comments>http://traderology.com/?p=121#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Jul 2007 21:45:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>TraderX</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Stocks]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Technical Research]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Time To Buy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://traderology.com/?p=121</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For the past few weeks Atwood Oceanics (NY:ATW) has traded in a consisten pattern. While moving in an upward trend, the stock makes a new high, retreats a few points on two to three sessions of increased selling pressure, and then continues to move higher until a new high is made.
After last weeks sell off [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For the past few weeks Atwood Oceanics (NY:ATW) has traded in a consisten pattern. While moving in an upward trend, the stock makes a new high, retreats a few points on two to three sessions of increased selling pressure, and then continues to move higher until a new high is made.</p>
<p>After last weeks sell off we can expect to see this stock move higher. And after the large oil and gas companies like Exxon (NY:XOM) and Chevron (NY:CVX) posted double-digit increases on upstream earnings (exploration and extraction), Atwood should have no problem beating their numbers. Look for an entry as the stock finds support around $68.50,. Your exit will come around $75 as the stock make a new high in the trend.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.traderology.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/atw7-30-07.JPG" title="ATW Trend 7.30.07"><img src="http://www.traderology.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/atw7-30-07.JPG" alt="ATW Trend 7.30.07" /></a></p>
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		<title>Merrill Swing Trade - Quick Points</title>
		<link>http://traderology.com/?p=119</link>
		<comments>http://traderology.com/?p=119#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Jul 2007 00:38:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>TraderX</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Fundamental Research]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://traderology.com/?p=119</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I liked the stock at $85, thought it was really cheap at $82, and can&#8217;t buy enough at $79.50. Apparently I&#8217;m not the only one.
Although bears tried to control the trading in Merrill this morning, buyers fled in to buy the stock as it moved below $80. With shares now trading at a single-digit multiple, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I liked the stock at $85, thought it was really cheap at $82, and can&#8217;t buy enough at $79.50. Apparently I&#8217;m not the only one.</p>
<p>Although bears tried to control the trading in Merrill this morning, buyers fled in to buy the stock as it moved below $80. With shares now trading at a single-digit multiple, institutions and hedge funds are going to support this stock and keep it from falling below $79. Just make sure you own some before they battle to own this stock; it&#8217;s going to trade above $85 by the end of the July.</p>
<p>Take a look at how bulls won the battle in today&#8217;s trading session. That&#8217;s certainly a bullish sign that should give confidence to long-term investors.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.traderology.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/mer7-23-07.jpg" title="MER 7-23-07 Reversal"><img src="http://www.traderology.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/mer7-23-07.jpg" alt="MER 7-23-07 Reversal" /></a></p>
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		<title>Whirpool Earnings 7/20/2007</title>
		<link>http://traderology.com/?p=117</link>
		<comments>http://traderology.com/?p=117#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Jul 2007 01:57:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>TraderX</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Chart Patterns]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Fundamental Research]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Stocks]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://traderology.com/?p=117</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Whirlpool (NY:WHR) has been a consistent performer over the past two years, and they always seem to beat analyst estimates for about every category.
Even while investors engaged in some profit taking over the past few weeks, the stock has remained in a stable price channel. Trust me, the stock is going to break this channel [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Whirlpool (NY:WHR) has been a consistent performer over the past two years, and they always seem to beat analyst estimates for about every category.</p>
<p>Even while investors engaged in some profit taking over the past few weeks, the stock has remained in a stable price channel. Trust me, the stock is going to break this channel after the company reports earnings tomorrow morning.</p>
<p>If history repeats itself tomorrow, Whirlpool will beat earnings for the sixth consecutive quarter and break above this price channel. I hate to be the pessimist, but analysts have set the bar too high for the company to beat estimates as easily as they have in the past. I expect their numbers to be inline, and that is my best-case scenario.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s a look at the price channel that Whirlpool has been trading in.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.traderology.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/whr7-20-07.jpg" title="WHR7-20-07"><img src="http://www.traderology.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/whr7-20-07.jpg" alt="WHR7-20-07" /></a></p>
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		<title>The Patent Power of Palomar</title>
		<link>http://traderology.com/?p=115</link>
		<comments>http://traderology.com/?p=115#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Jul 2007 01:32:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>TraderX</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Bargain Basket]]></category>

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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://traderology.com/?p=115</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Medical companies have fallen by the wayside in recent months, but let&#8217;s not forget how undervalued these companies have become. For many &#8220;meditech&#8221; and pharmaceutical companies, the real value is in the protection of their pipeline - the power of patents! The company who holds several key patents and sits at the top of my [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Medical companies have fallen by the wayside in recent months, but let&#8217;s not forget how undervalued these companies have become. For many &#8220;meditech&#8221; and pharmaceutical companies, the real value is in the protection of their pipeline - the power of patents! The company who holds several key patents and sits at the top of my buy list is Palomar Medical Technologies (NAS:PMTI).</p>
<p>The company has been approved for roughly 50 patents, and the most important one came only a few weeks ago. With the cosmetic and dermatological markets gaining popularity in recent years, the company is in a great position to control most of the commercial laser treatment market. Their latest patent and deal (partnered with Johnson &amp; Johnson) involves bringing this technology to the multi-billion dollar personal cosmetics market - a segment that could easily double their sales. Not to mention increasing the likelihood of a buyout from one of the major biotech companies.</p>
<p>Since lowering their guidance for the fiscal year of 2007, Palomar has been on a freefall from its 52-week high. However, with earnings estimates so low, there is a great chance the company will post higher numbers and regain the attention of investors.</p>
<p>Looking at a 6-month chart we see the stock poised to make a strong reversal as it breaks through its former support line at $38. If Palomar can break through this historical trendline, expect this stock to jump on higher buyer volume. My short-term price target is $46, and I expect this to be met by the end of the 3rd quarter. Never forget the power of patents.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.traderology.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/pmti7-19-07.jpg" title="PMTI-Chart-71907"><img src="http://www.traderology.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/pmti7-19-07.jpg" alt="PMTI-Chart-71907" /></a></p>
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		<title>The Real Oil Alternative</title>
		<link>http://traderology.com/?p=111</link>
		<comments>http://traderology.com/?p=111#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Jul 2007 01:27:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>TraderX</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Fundamental Research]]></category>

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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://traderology.com/?p=111</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With crude prices showing no immediate signs of slowing &#8212; and the United States determined to reduce its dependence on foreign oil &#8212; we should once again see alternative energy stocks gain the attention (and respect) they deserve.
During Ben Bernanke&#8217;s testimony this afternoon, one representative discused the possibility of increasing the number of nuclear power [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With crude prices showing no immediate signs of slowing &#8212; and the United States determined to reduce its dependence on foreign oil &#8212; we should once again see alternative energy stocks gain the attention (and respect) they deserve.</p>
<p>During Ben Bernanke&#8217;s testimony this afternoon, one representative discused the possibility of increasing the number of nuclear power facilities in the U.S. Although this seems like an unlikely scenario, it appears to be the ideal solution given the price volatility of oil, coal and natural gas. (Not to mention the massive reduction in carbon emissions.) Here&#8217;s how you can play this nuclear power news.</p>
<p>The the largest players in the nuclear power industry are Entergy (NY:ETY), Duke (NY:DUK) and Progress Energy (NY:PGN). These companies have excellent growth potential and some of the best dividend yields in the entire energy sector. As the topic of nuclear energy begins to circulate in the media, Entergy and Progress will both make new 52-week highs - a scenario likely to take place before the 4th quarter of &#8216;07.</p>
<p>An even better way to invest in nuclear power may be to purchase shares of uranium producers like Cameco (NY:CCJ) and USEC (NY:USU). Combined the two entities control over 30% of the world&#8217;s uranium production. If the demand for nuclear power increases, so will the demand for uranium and the price of these two stocks.</p>
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		<title>ATPG Insider Selling</title>
		<link>http://traderology.com/?p=110</link>
		<comments>http://traderology.com/?p=110#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Jul 2007 02:22:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>TraderX</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Stocks]]></category>

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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://traderology.com/?p=110</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[ATP Oil and Gas has been trading higher for the past few weeks on strong upward volume. With the stock now trading at 55 times forward earnings, insiders and investors are looking to cash in on this recent uptrend.
In recent weeks executives of ATPG have sold shares in the mid 40&#8217;s, signaling a possible end [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>ATP Oil and Gas has been trading higher for the past few weeks on strong upward volume. With the stock now trading at 55 times forward earnings, insiders and investors are looking to cash in on this recent uptrend.</p>
<p>In recent weeks executives of ATPG have sold shares in the mid 40&#8217;s, signaling a possible end to this strong uptrend. Looking at a six-month chart we see resistance developing around $49, and a neckline forming at $48. If the stock moves lower on higher volume, this could be a great intraday shorting opportunity. Keep this on your radar for tomorrow morning.</p>
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		<title>MBS Downgrade - Surprise, Surprise</title>
		<link>http://traderology.com/?p=108</link>
		<comments>http://traderology.com/?p=108#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Jul 2007 00:45:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>TraderX</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Fundamental Research]]></category>

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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://traderology.com/?p=108</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hedge funds have reported losses in the billions, subprime mortgage companies have filed for bankruptcy and most subprime debt is valued well below par, and the still the major ratings agencies had not reviewed the credit quality of these securities.
Sense finally came to Moody&#8217;s today, and the agency downgraded approximately $12 billion worth of mortgage-backed [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hedge funds have reported losses in the billions, subprime mortgage companies have filed for bankruptcy and most subprime debt is valued well below par, and the still the major ratings agencies had not reviewed the credit quality of these securities.</p>
<p>Sense finally came to Moody&#8217;s today, and the agency downgraded approximately $12 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities. This did not come as a surprise to investors. Still, investment banking stocks moved lower on this news. As an investor who often looks for cheap, distressed securities with solid fundamentals, I think this is a great opportunity to buy these stocks.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s take a look at Lehman Brothers (NY:LEH), a bank whose performance is heavily tied to several large hedge funds. With stakes in Ospraie Management LP, Marble Bar Asset Management, D.E. Shaw, GLG Partners LP and Spinnaker Capital, it is certain that Lehman has exposure to risky hedge funds who hold these securities. I would stay away from this stock until it reports Q2 earnings.</p>
<p>Bear Stearns (NY:BSC) is in a similar situation, and I would wait for the company to trade near its 52-week low before adding it to a portfolio.</p>
<p>Focus on companies that have a diversified portfolio of services. Goldman Sachs (NY:GS) may have exposure to these securities, however, its brokerage and investment banking operations will mitigate the losses from its subprime investments. The same goes for JP Morgan (NY:JPM), another well diversified investment bank.</p>
<p>Just like any portfolio, the more diversified the better.</p>
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